The Granary Is Burning: Mathematics of War in Lower Artibonite

Attrition models, response time, and defensive geography: what the equations say about Haiti’s deadliest corridor

The Granary Is Burning: Mathematics of War in Lower Artibonite

Une rizière de l'Artibonite (archives)

Two images, captured at the same moment, summarize Haiti’s security situation better than any report. On April 1, 2026, in Port-au-Prince, the first Chadian contingent of the Gang Suppression Force (GSF) set foot on the tarmac of Toussaint Louverture under the cameras (Al Jazeera, April 1, 2026). A solemn moment. At the same time, 120 kilometers to the north, armed men from Kokorat San Ras were filming themselves distributing money in the streets of Marchand-Dessalines, the first capital of free Haiti (Reuters, CBC News, April 1, 2026)

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